What might transport in Hope Valley look like in 2030? The following explores the future of on-demand travel and the scenario of Taas, Transport as a Service (also known as MaaS, Mobility as a Service).
Background
We are on the cusp of a technological disruption in transport where various trends intersect to produce a dramatic change over a very short time-scale of 10-15 years.
A. coincidence of various technologies: electric vehicles, cheaper better batteries, cheaper computing power, autonomous (driverless) vehicles, smart phones.
B. changes in behaviour: ordering services on-line (for example, food, travel, entertainment and music), paying a monthly subscription for services (for example broadband, Amazon, Netflix)
C. a 4x–10x drop in the cost of an annual subscription to TaaS compared to the annual cost of owning and running a car.
D. the growth of global provider companies like Uber, Lyft in the assenger market and Amazon and ‘last-mile’ delivery firms.
We are already 3-5 years into this process and it may play out by 2030, certainly by 2040. To date, examples of the TaaS / MaaS have only been in urban rather than rural areas.
What this means for Hope Valley
Using a booking App, TaaS would integrate well with trains and fast buses on popular routes. Railway stations and main bus stops in villages would become natural hubs for efficient journeys from home into Mancheters and Sheffield and back.
Depending on whether one is prepared the share the journey with others, the cost of this service would vary. Journey sharing would be an attractive option for many, especially on the main commutes into Sheffield and Manchester, which would reduce the number of vehicles on the road.
All fleet delivery vehicles like Amazon and supermarkets will be EV and may also be autonomous. This will dramatically reduce operating costs since EVs are 3 times cheaper to run and maintain and last 5-10 times longer than ICE vehicles.
Some people may still own and drive their own cars but, as the price differential between owning a car and buying a service widens, the majority of people will have switched to a TaaS on demand transport system. These vehicles will probably be EV and may also be autonomous. They may be autonomous by 2040.
What are the benefits in terms of climate action
- Reduction in emissions. 50-70% reduction in CO2 emissions by going electric. Autonomous vehicles encourage journey sharing and will result in less vehicle miles and less cars.
- Roads in Hope Valley would be much safer, speeds would be controlled and villages would be safer and quieter.
- EVs will boost demand for local power generation.EVs act as battery storage (each vehicle can store enough to power a home for 2 days)
- Autonmous vehicles are already 6 times safer than current driver controlled vehicles (1,752 people were killed on British roads in 2019. Autonomous vehicles would reduce this to about 25, saving 1,500 lives a year. There would be a commensurate decrease in casualties.)
- Annual demand for and production of vehicles dropped by 80%.EVs last much longer (1,000,000 rather than 150,000 miles).
- Annual demand for oil drops dramatically and crashes oil prices and makes damaging oil extraction uncommercial. Fossil fuel resources stranded.
- Car parks will become redundant and anti-social parking will end
- Boost in houshold income as each household with 1 car or more will save about £1500 a year on transport.
